Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 2.393014 2.788420 3.226584 3.747848 4.350836 5.026220 5.839934
2026-01-11 1.772567 2.300301 2.947924 3.799866 4.889999 6.237179 8.027805
2026-01-18 1.374113 1.948572 2.715110 3.809879 5.330537 7.365380 10.292914
2026-01-25 1.098481 1.679397 2.511445 3.785061 5.680310 8.390822 12.556508
2026-02-01 0.853843 1.395074 2.220199 3.562541 5.684248 8.899899 14.134055
2026-02-08 0.694968 1.205046 2.027224 3.439326 5.794042 9.550834 15.983852
2026-02-15 0.590888 1.081443 1.913116 3.413370 6.038868 10.425647 18.287264
2026-02-22 0.533115 1.025014 1.898228 3.545284 6.556710 11.802900 21.599072
2026-03-01 0.462377 0.931687 1.801997 3.514470 6.777835 12.691329 24.169178
2026-03-08 0.400098 0.842903 1.698768 3.451556 6.924861 13.456687 26.604526
2026-03-15 0.355259 0.780556 1.635277 3.452841 7.189056 14.463746 29.613780
2026-03-22 0.343661 0.784706 1.703267 3.724881 8.021814 16.656958 35.204886
2026-03-29 0.311560 0.741262 1.670895 3.793124 8.467019 18.179927 39.737304
2026-04-05 0.282139 0.699088 1.635615 3.852028 8.906766 19.762298 44.641054
2026-04-12 0.253054 0.652454 1.583074 3.864342 9.246945 21.182153 49.400640
2026-04-19 0.225478 0.604347 1.519222 3.839918 9.499282 22.442940 53.981935
2026-04-26 0.190165 0.530041 1.380825 3.614494 9.245172 22.529303 55.889229
2026-05-03 0.165306 0.478340 1.289337 3.489607 9.213936 23.123552 59.069231
2026-05-10 0.148468 0.445234 1.239663 3.463309 9.424345 24.319880 63.871033
2026-05-17 0.140473 0.435567 1.250036 3.597112 10.066980 26.659794 71.840735
2026-05-24 0.126682 0.406364 1.202608 3.565862 10.266758 27.909374 77.184779
2026-05-31 0.113337 0.375942 1.146779 3.502052 10.368159 28.917818 82.033218
2026-06-07 0.103668 0.355130 1.115244 3.503356 10.652575 30.449041 88.499267